Andy Murray will meet Marin Cilic in the first of the men’s semifinals at the 2010 Australian Open on Thursday.
The match pits one of the ‘chokers’ of world tennis against a player making his first appearance in a grand slam semifinal. While Murray will go into the match a strong favourite, Cilic has clearly raised his game in 2010 and could pose a threat to the Briton if he lowers his guard during the encounter.
Andy Murray vs. Marin Cilic Trends Analysis
The world number 4 has met the world number 14 just four times in the past. Andy Murray won 3 of these matches, with Cilic prevailing on one occasion. Their scores on hard courts reads a win apiece. The most recent meeting between these two players, in the last 16 of the 2009 US Open, produced a straight sets win for Cilic.
Cilic has been impressive at the 2010 Australian Open, beating Stanislas Warinka , Juan Martin del Portro and Andy Roddick on his way to the semifinals. The Croat has battled to put away opponents in straight sets, and his last two matches ran to 5 sets. Cilic has been solid while serving, defending 85% of his service games, breaking 1 in 3 games while receiving serve.
Andy Murray, meanwhile, has had a relatively easy path to the semifinals of the 2010 Australian Open. The Scot trounced the likes of John Isner, Florent Serra and Marc Giquel on the way to the quarterfinals, and then benefited from an injury to Rafael to take a default win in his quarterfinal.
Murray is yet to lose a set at the Australian Open and has an exceptionally high break percentage while receiving serve, while his own service game has been rock solid with over 90% of service games going his way.
Andy Murray vs. Marin Cilic Betting Tip
Murray is very short priced for this match at a best price of 2/9 at Boylesports while Cilic is trading at 4/1 at Bet365.
Andy Murray is a deserved favourite for this match, but is priced so low that it discourages a match bet on him. Our feeling is that the 5 set marathons Cilic has been through are going to leave him wilting while Murray should be quite fresh after his relatively easy trip to the semifinals.
The best option therefore looks like spreading bets on the set betting markets. We like Murray at 14/5 for a 3-1 win at Betfair while a 3-2 win for Murray is 6/1 at BlueSQ.
You could also hedge a big back bet on Murray at low odds with a bet on Cilic winning the match 3-2 at 13/1, as we can’t see the Croat winning in under 5 sets if he manages to beat Murray.
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