The first grand slam of 2010 gets underway just three weeks into the New Year. The 2010 Australian Open will take place following a year the witnessed seismic shifts in the balance of power in mens’ tennis that included the rise of a new generation of stars and the revitalization of some of the ATP Tour’s veterans.
We’ll take a look at the prospects of some of the favourites as we prepare for one of the biggest tennis tournaments of the year:
1. Roger Federer
2009 was the year we saw Roger Federer reverse his apparent slide into obscurity and come back from the brink to win two grand slams and surpass Pete Sampras’ record for most grand slam titles. Towards the end of the year Federer faded somewhat, losing to Juan Martin del Potro in the final of the US Open before exiting the ATP Tour World Finals in the semifinals.
Federer will enter the 2010 Australian Open as the bookies favourite and priced at around 9/4 to win the tournament. With each-way bets paying out ½ the odds to second place he’s a decent each-way betting option to reach the final. However, Federer hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2007 and we think his chances of winning are slimmer than suggested, so we’re happy to place our only straight lay bet on the outright markets on the world number one.
2. Juan Martin del Potro
Juan Martin del Potro announced his arrival on the top tier of men’s tennis by winning the US Open in 2009 by beating the world number one. The young Argentinean is clearly set to dominate men’s tennis in the future, but it’s perhaps a bit early in his career to expect him to win two consecutive grand slam titles.
Del Potro has also shown a tendency to peak in the late-season during his career, and we have reason to doubt whether he’ll be up to speed by the time the Australian Open gets underway. Nevertheless at 5/1 del Potro is a value bet. If you want to bet on the Argentinean it may be an idea to back him early and hope for his odds to drop during the course of the tournament, facilitating a lay bet to lock in a profit.
3. Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open winner Novak Djokovic finds himself priced amongst the favourites for the 2010 tournament largely on the basis of his win at the 2009 Paris Masters. Djokovic struggled to find form last season after changing his racket, but appeared to be recovering towards the end of the season.
Djokovic is a dark horse in this tournament, and a determined performance could propel him into the semifinals and beyond. Once again, we suggest that trading his 5/1 odds in the expectation that he performs well at the tournament is better option than placing a single back or lay bet on Djokovic.
4. Andy Murray
Andy Murray had a productive year in 2009, claiming six ATP Tour titles, including two Masters Series titles. Nevertheless the Scot was unable to make inroads at the grand slams, and it appears that the pressure on Murray to win at the highest level is having a direct effect on his ability to go all the way in the biggest tournaments.
Murray doesn’t have a particularly impressive record at the Australian Open, and has never moved beyond the 4th round of the tournament. We have little reason to believe that he’ll do better in 2009, and believe that he’s most likely to break his grand slam duck when its least expected of him. At 5/1 he’s priced generously for his die-hard fans, but we believe your bankroll is better spent elsewhere.
5. Rafael Nadal
The reigning Australian Open champion finds himself in the unusual position of being priced as long as 6/1 to defend his title. Admittedly Nadal had a poor year in 2009 and struggled to regain his confidence after struggling with knee tendonitis throughout the season.
Despite his poor form, Nadal showed signs of revival at the end of 2009 by reaching the final of the Shanghai Masters. It may be too early to expect a comeback from a player who grew too accustomed to his own invincibility and is apparently struggling to come to terms with the fact that he’s a mere mortal.
At 6/1 Nadal’s a decent each way proposition, and certainly worth an outright bet for a possible trade at a betting exchange later in the tournament.
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