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- Six Nations Tips
The 2010 edition of the Six Nations Championship kicks off on the 6th of January. This year’s tournament could be one of the most open in decades, with five of the six competing teams all in with a reasonable chance of walking away with the title at the end of March.
France has been going through a quiet spell in the Six Nations of late. While the French were the most successful Six Nations team of the last decade, they failed to make an impact on the last two tournaments, and are overdue a big performance in 2010.
Bookmakers are thinking along the same lines and most have the French priced at 13/8 in the outright markets.
We have reservations over France’s status as favourites. While the team is always capable of taking down the best in the sport, as we saw last year in New Zealand, they struggle to perform consistently, are struggling with injuries to key players, and have yet to find a settled squad or rhythm under Marc Lievremont.
One thing that may give the French an edge is the fact that they will be playing two key matches, against Ireland and England, at home. However, their tournament will start with a tricky away fixture against an improving Scotland side at Murrayfield.
Our betting tip for France is to lay them at an exchange, looking to earn a return of the French fail to win the Six Nations.
2009 was perhaps the finest season in the history of Irish rugby. The Irish clinched their second grand slam title in thrilling fashion, and went on to perform impressively in the November test series, defeating South Africa and drawing against Australia.
Bookmakers have priced the Irish at around 5/2 in the antepost betting markets, with Canbet offering the best price of 9/4.
There’s little doubt that Ireland is the form team in the Nothern Hemisphere at present. However, the Irish will be playing some of their toughest matches away from home this season, with away games against France and England. Three games at Croke Park could balance this equation out a bit, particularly if the championship turns out to be as closely contested as we expect.
We’re happy to back Ireland with an outright bet, looking to use this bet as a hedge bet on one of the longer priced teams winning the tournament.
The Welsh came within minutes of claiming back-to-back Six Nations titles in 2009, but were foiled by a last gasp drop-goal by Ronan O’Gara in their match against Ireland. They’ll be back with a vengeance in 2010 as they look to put a disappointing season behind themselves.
Bookmakers are offering high prices on the Welsh, with the likes of Ladbrokes, Bet365 and BlueSQ all pricing the team at 4/1.
A look at the draw shows mixed fortunes for Wales. While the Welsh will play France at home, they’ll also be playing England at Twickenham and Ireland at Croke Park. Given the fact that the Welsh haven’t been in the most convincing form, we have reason to believe they will struggle in these matches.
With this in mind we’re going to attempt to trade Wales during the Six Nations. We’ll start off by laying them at Betfair, expecting the team’s odds to drift following their trip to Twickenham. Once their odds drift sufficiently we can lock in a profit with a back bet at higher odds.
It’s been six years since England last won the Six Nations championship, the longest the English have had to wait for a title since failing to win a single championship during the 1990s. Dismal performances during the November test did little for the English cause, and fans are probably not expecting much of their team in 2010.
Bookmakers aren’t terribly optimistic about England’s prospects either. The side is priced between 4/1 by most bookmakers with Betfair offering the best price of 5/1.
A look at the draw shows that it has been favourable to the English, who will be playing both Ireland and Wales at Twickenham. Their schedule also features a tricky away trip to Murrayfield and a visit to the Stade de France to face the old enemy.
England is without a doubt one of the dark horses of the tournament, and is overdue a big performance. At 4/1 the English team provides decent value on an outright bet, and we’re happy to back England as the team to cause an upset in the Six Nations in 2010.
Scottish rugby looks like it may finally be finding its feet after years of struggling to embrace a fully professional game. The nation’s two club sides are doing well in the Magners League, and Scotland has shown real resilience on the international front over the last year, culminating in a gritty win over Australia in November.
Bookmakers have virtually priced Scotland out of the reckoning in 2010, with the team trading as high as 22/1 at Boylesports.
Given that Scotland has arguably the best draw of the tournament, with home matches against both France and England, we believe that bookies have overpriced this team. While the Scots are unlikely to win the Six Nations, they will almost certainly perform better than their 22/1 price suggests.
The high price on offer on the Scots means that trading is the best approach to betting on this team. We’ll place a back bet on Scotland now at the odds on offer. We can expect these odds to drop significantly if Scotland wins a couple of games during the tournament, and this will allow us to lay the team at an exchange to lock in a profit.
Italy’s squad of no-hopers will once again be engaged in a damage limitation exercise at the 2010 Six Nations Championship. With the Italians still lacking quality players at scrum-half and fly-half, chances are they will struggle to get past the defences of the other five Six Nations teams.
Most bookies are happy to offer a price of 250/1 on an Italian side that will begin its campaign with a trip to Croke Park to take on the defending champions.
Besides fielding the poorest team, Italy also has the toughest draw, with only two home games and away matches to Wales, France and Ireland. Nick Mallet’s men will be targeting Scotland’s visit for a win, but chances are the Scots won’t roll over for their Latin hosts in 2010.
If you’re happy to take on a monumental liability at a betting exchange, you are perfectly safe placing a lay bet on Italy at the tournament. Alternately, you have the option to bank on Italy walking away with the Six Nations wooden spoon in 2010.
Six Nations Outright Odds Comparison
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