Poker: Skill or Blind Luck?

Professional poker players would have you believe that poker is a game of skill. Thousands of books on poker strategy have been written in the last two decades, giving players the odds on every imaginable combination of cards, not to mention the possible permutations brought about by the flop, turn and river.

However, the talk of skill and strategy may be just so much smoke and mirrors. The fact of the matter may be that good poker strategy can be described in one sentence: Play tight, play weak hands very occasionally to avoid becoming predictable, and play aggressively.

For the rest poker is all about luck. As much as strategy orientated players might hate to admit it, there are times when pocket cards of 23 unsuited can take down pocket aces, and anyone who has played tournament poker for any length of time, knows that this can and does happen on a fairly regular basis.

For proof that winning in poker has more to do with luck than skill, you need only look at the final hands played at the World Series of Poker in the last decade. In 2007 Jerry Yang’s pair of 8s beat Tuan Lam’s AQ suited. In 2005 Joe Hachem’s 73 unsuited beat Steve Dannenman’s A3. The 1999 World Series of Poker saw Noel Furlong’s 55 beat Alan Goehring’s 66.

In fact, statistics show that in the last decade 7 of the 10 World Series of Poker winning hands were mathematically weaker hands. One could also throw in the fact that pocket aces have twice lost players the World Series of Poker, while the tournament has never been won with Texas Hold ‘em’s most powerful starting hand.

Come to think of it, you don’t need stats to prove that poker is about luck. You only need to look at Mike Matusow. Matusow has won two World Series of Poker bracelets, not to mention the WSOP Tournament of Champions. Yet anyone who has watched the man play for more than 5 minutes will realise that his true calling is probably disinfecting garbage bins.

Apart from talking his opponents into a state of near panic by spouting forth an endless stream of drivel, Matusow does what any half decent poker player does. He folds weak hands and plays strong ones. One thing Mike has to his advantage is a multi-million dollar bankroll that he has spent and rebuilt several times in his life, losing as often as he has won.

Chances are that you could turn your grandmother into a WSOP bracelet winner by taking the following steps:

1. Allow her to practice the game on an internet poker site for one month;
2. Buy her a big hoodie, a pair of sunglasses and a box of valium;
3. Enter her into a couple of minor live tournaments;
4. Send her to the WSOP every year for a decade with a $500k bankroll;
5. Make sure that she purchases entry into the maximum number of tournaments during each series.

Chances are she wouldn’t need a decade to pick up a bracelet.