The first of the national hunt season’s ‘Nationals’ takes place the day after Boxing Day at Chepstow Racecourse, with the running of the Welsh National. This 3 mile 5f 110y race is less brutal than some of the nationals scheduled for the late season, and has drawn a bumper selection of entries looking to claim the biggest prize in Welsh racing.

Destined for Ditcheat?

Paul Nicholls has been in good form in the Welsh National over recent years. The Ditcheat trainer has won the race twice and achieved a smattering of places. While this race is something of a cavalry charge with luck and weights influencing results more than racehorse quality, it’s hard to ignore Nicholls’ form this season, with his horses doing well in the early-season handicaps.

Unsurprisingly, Nicholls has one of the favourites in the mix, in the form of The Tother One, currently priced in the top three for the race. Nozic and My Will are also in Nicholls’ hand, with the former not showing much form in recent races, and the latter a decent proposition for a place in the Chepstow spectacular.

Former Glories

A number of former national winners are included in the field, and are paying the price at the handicapper for their former glories. Grand National winner, Mon Mome, heads the weights and may not make the field on the 28th, 2006 winner, Halcon Genelardais, is also set to shoulder a stiff weight in the race, while 2007 winner, Miko de Beauchene is the only former Welsh National winner that hasn’t been weighted out of contention for the race.

Le Beau Bai has captured the attention of many punters ahead of the Welsh National. Not only did he score at Cheptsow in his last handicap, but Richard Lee’s entry has been making waves in handicaps all season, albeit in fields considerably smaller than the one he’ll have to beat at Chepstow in the 28th. With 4 wins from 5 starts he’s a tough horse to ignore, and deserves his place at the head of the Welsh National betting markets with weights unlikely to have a massive influence on his performance.

2009 Welsh National Betting Tip

Backing racehorses in big races handicaps like the national is always risky, but this year’s race looks to have thrown up a likely winner in the form of Le Beau Bai. Lee’s entry is trading at odds high enough to produce a return on an each way bet with a place. Tother One also looks like a decent each-way proposition given Nicholls form, not to mention the skills of lead jockey Ruby Walsh. Lay bets are always an option in cavalry charges, but there’s too much a liability at stake in this race with the high prices on offer, so we’ll instead stick with form entries and look forward to one of the most exciting races of the season.

The odds for 2:10 WELSH NATIONAL HCAP CHASE 3m 5 1/2f are currently not available.

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