The national hunt season serves up its next major group 3 race, the Hennessy Gold Cup, at Newbury this weekend. While we may have napped the winner of the Betfair Chase last weekend, this weekend’s handicap provides a sterner test. Not only do we have to bring the effect of weights into the equation, but we need to determine whether or not Denman is good enough to beat a decent field carrying 1 stone more than the next heaviest rider, Joe Lively.

Another Gold Cup?

Denman has run in only one other handicap race since beginning his career over fences. As it happens, that race was the 2007 running of the Hennessy Gold Cup, where he carried top weight and left the field 11 lengths in his wake. History therefore suggests that weight shouldn’t be a major issue for Denman, particularly since he has claimed most of his grade 1 plaudits carrying just 2 lbs less than he’ll shoulder on Saturday.

While Denman’s class is not in question, there are questions lingering over his form and confidence. Punters who watched this year’s totesport Bowl won’t have forgotten the tumble he took in that race – the first fall of his career. It therefore remains to be seen how that fall will have affected his confidence. Our guess is that while he still has the talent to win at Newbury he’s unlikely to be the same horse as the one we saw take the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year.

Next stop, Barber’s Shop

Priced just off Denman is Barber’s Shop. Quite how he managed to secure his place in the betting markets is open to speculation, as he’s done little in his career to suggest he could beat Denman with weights or without. He’ll be making the trip over Newbury significantly lighter than Denman, but there’s little else to suggest that his 10st 8 lbs weight is going to help him improve on the second place he secured in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Looking further back in the field there’s little to provide an indication of which racehorse will step up to the plate on Saturday. One horse that does look like an interesting prospect is Grand National winner, Mon Mome, who’ll be travelling lighter than he was at Aintree in April. With this horse trading over 100/1 at the exchanges, he’s easily the best each-way value bet in the field.

2009 Hennessy Gold Cup Betting Tips

Is Denman good enough to win the race? Definitely. Does he have the form or confidence? We’re not so sure. We’ll be putting an each-way to nothing bet on Paul Nicholls’ horse and will wait for him to answer that question. We’ll also put a small stake on an each-way bet on Mon Mome and look for him to show the form he displayed at Aintree in April. For the rest we’ll take a trip to the betting exchanges and look who we can lay without incurring a major liability, and first in our sights will be Barber’s Shop, who looks to be the most over-valued horse in the field.

{Hennessy Gold Cup}

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