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Over more than two centuries of racing, a number of trends have emerged in the Grand National which can help punters make more accurate selections for the Aintree spectacular:
Weight: Only two racehorses carrying 11 stone or more have won the Grand National since 1988, suggesting that entries weighted above 11 stone are risky selections.
Furthermore, the racehorse carrying top weight, whilst usually the highest rated entry in the field, very rarely wins the race. The last racehorse to achieve this feat was the incomparable Red Rum in 1974.
Age: While the Grand National is open to 6 year old and above racehorses, it is unusual for horses under the age of 8 to win the race – the last 7 year old to win the race was Bogskar in 1940.
Instead, the vast majority of Grand National winners are aged between 9 and 11. In the last three decades over 75% of all Grand National winners have fallen within this age range.
Markets: Despite the challenges of betting on this most unpredictable of races, the Grand National still tends to produce a short-odds market favourite year in and year out.
Favourites have a low strike rate in the race, with a winning rate of around 20% in the last three decades.
Race favourites have a far better record when it comes to placing in the Grand National, which makes each-way or place bets on the favourite one of the soundest Grand National betting options.
Form: Trends have shown that winning the race immediately prior to the Grand National does not lead on to success at Aintree. However, the majority of Grand National winners do finish within the top five of their race prior to their run at Aintree.
It is also worth noting that defending champions, whilst often entered in the race, very rarely go on to win it again. The last horse to achieve this feat was Red Rum in the 1970s.
False Leads: It is also worth noting several influences that have proven to have little correlation with how entries perform at the Grand National at Aintree.
Amongst these are nationality (ie backing Irish or British racehorse), the ability of the jockey assigned to a particular entry (Tony McCoy, 13 times Champion jockey, has never won the race) and the reputation/strength of the entry’s trainer.
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