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South Africa clashes with Samoa at the 2011 Rugby World Cup on Friday. The match is Samoa’s final opportunity to qualify for the knockout rounds, and they would need to beat South Africa with four tries to progress to the next round.
Past meetings between these sides suggest that this won’t happen. Samoa and South Africa have met four times in the past decade, and South Africa has thumped Samoa every time, putting 29 tries past the Samoans in four fixtures.
These two teams last met at the 2007 Rugby World Cup, when South Africa beat Samoa 59-7.
South Africa is in good shape coming into this fixture. After a shaky opening win against Wales, South Africa has hit top gear, putting big victories past both Fiji and Namibia, and demonstrating unexpected potency amongst its backs.
While Samoa is a different proposition to its last two opponents, South Africa has demonstrated huge depth, and this alone should let them take a comfortable win – although they’ll have a fight on their hands in the first half.
Samoa’s rugby at the 2011 Rugby World Cup has shown tremendous maturity, and the Samoans came close to putting Wales away before a brilliant effort by Leigh Halfpenny put the game out of their reach.
Nevertheless, solid wins over both Fiji and Namibia, combined with solid all-round displays, indicate that Samoan rugby is approaching its potential. Given that the Samoans beat Australia ahead of the 2011 Tri Nations, they won’t be taken lightly by the Boks.
South Africa should win this match, but the margin by which this will happen is hard to predict. Bookies have handed the Boks a -15 handicap for this match, which looks like a realistic assessment of the difference between the two teams.
However, we think the final 20 minutes of the match will stretch Samoa to its limits. A strong South African side will line up for this match, with some quality impact players due to come on in the second half.
Our South Africa vs. Samoa betting tip is therefore to take the even odds on offer at Betfred on a -15 point Springbok handicap in a match the Springboks may win more easily than expected.
| World Cup - South Africa v Samoa - 08:30 | |||||||||||
| Click red odds to strike a bet | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samoa | +8.5 10/3 | +15.5 1/1 | +16.5 10/11 | +17.5 10/11 | +17.5 11/10 | +17.5 4/5 | +17.5 10/11 | +17.5 1/1 | +17.5 1/1 | ||
| South Africa | -8.5 2/9 | -15.5 8/11 | -16.5 4/5 | -17.5 10/11 | -17.5 9/10 | -17.5 10/11 | -17.5 5/6 | -17.5 5/6 | -17.5 4/5 | ||
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